Lies, Damn Lies, and Opinion Polls

But, a lot of confused liberals have written to ask, what about the opinion polls? Some polls showed Kerry ahead, and running neck and neck in others. Where was that support come election day?

As anyone who was around in the 80s will tell you, a lot of people lie when asked questions. It's just a habit. If you ask damn fool questions, as someone once said, you get damn fool answers. I know if I ever deigned to stop and answer an opinion poll I would lie my head off. You never know who is paying for it, and you should never miss an opportunity to spread uncertainty and misinformation.

There's a +/-3% margin of error in most polls. When the poll is about political candidates, with one right-wing and one ever-so-slightly left-of-centre, a good rule of thumb is to add the 3% to the right-winger and subtract it from the leftist.

Why? There is nothing quite so shameful as voting for a right-wing candidate, so people lie about it. The British Labour party discovered this in the 80s. You have to be showing a good 10% lead to stand a realistic chance, come the election. People either say "I'm not sure," or they will just give the opposite answer to the truth.

I hope this clears things up for you.